NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74acf3b1aa40c3a16996cfe4111071a334a08cda211a326fb254ee0d8239703c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Under | 47c | 60,083$28,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,788.07 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 53c | 48,000$25,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,440 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 11,817$6,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,115.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 49c | 8,070$3,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,115.88 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 30c | 7,421$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,166.15 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 52c | 6,837$3,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,585.03 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f4…7e6bbacked Under | 48c | 3,458$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…a220backed Under | 48c | 1,123$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 1,006$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.97 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…79f9backed Under | 48c | 693.73$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.89 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 651$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 52c | 573$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.7 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…cf1cbacked Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 52c | 282.33$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.81 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Under | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…4d0bbacked Under | 53c | 247.87$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Under | 48c | 185$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 53c | 181.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Under | 50c | 177$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.27 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 53c | 131.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Over | 53c | 118.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…0bf9backed Under | 48c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 47c | 63.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Under | 49c | 55.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 54.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70a…f6c3backed Under | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 30c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 30c | 49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed Under | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33a…223fbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.