NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0f37072ecf51a823d6a7c38096b271b4dc131ec5f33ef5a8421212633c47c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Under | 46c | 27,009$12,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,659.86 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 12,475$6,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,671.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4991…5ecdbacked Over | 54c | 10,852$5,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,859.84 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 9,930$5,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,362.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Under | 46c | 6,500$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,510 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Under | 46c | 2,446$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.65 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f4…7e6bbacked Under | 46c | 1,367$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 57c | 1,009$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.08 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 54c | 972$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.88 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…a220backed Under | 46c | 874$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 57c | 870.69$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…47f2backed Under | 51c | 766.67$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.27 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 51c | 444$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 391$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.32 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…79f9backed Under | 47c | 347.5$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Under | 50c | 236$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 50c | 142$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Under | 48c | 87.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 79.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 54c | 42.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…0bf9backed Under | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…dfa3backed Under | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…47aabacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Under | 50c | 29.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…ac33backed Under | 46c | 23.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70a…f6c3backed Under | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.