NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x534f065dba2878d67fc6ee77548e818a1924a65d69bf79f070863a0c3d452dd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Cavaliers, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 41c | 1,572$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Cavaliers | 61c | 1,250$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 43c | 798.81$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 41c | 788.99$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.56 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Cavaliers | 58c | 350$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 47c | 233.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…66b2backed Cavaliers | 56c | 229.39$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Cavaliers | 57c | 228.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Pacers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers | 55c | 175.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Cavaliers | 50c | 168$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Cavaliers | 57c | 114.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Pacers | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 109.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Pacers | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Pacers | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…79cbbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Cavaliers | 57c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Cavaliers | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Cavaliers | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Cavaliers | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Pacers | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pacers | 43c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 54.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…a811backed Cavaliers | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Pacers | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 58c | 36.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Cavaliers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pacers | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec71…fc6fbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 50c | 26.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…ce94backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Cavaliers | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Cavaliers | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Cavaliers | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.