NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaff9a138cc3e4d95414a5c027bc65e478f1fe1ab93a16aa5316808978b60ade
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Cavaliers, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Pacers | 50c | 8,173$4,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,086.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Cavaliers | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Cavaliers | 48c | 4,271$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Pacers | 55c | 2,627$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.95 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Cavaliers | 47c | 1,845$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.09 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 52c | 1,621$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Cavaliers | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 46c | 988$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Cavaliers | 48c | 962.5$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Cavaliers | 50c | 555$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 53c | 458.21$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.13 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Pacers | 52c | 426.92$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.92 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…0121backed Pacers | 54c | 375.93$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.93 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Pacers | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 45c | 345.93$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.94 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 206.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Pacers | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Cavaliers | 47c | 150.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Pacers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b8ffbacked Pacers | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pacers | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Pacers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Cavaliers | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Pacers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Cavaliers | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 67.9%152 W · 72 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Pacers | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Cavaliers | 55c | 54.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 52.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…451dbacked Pacers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Pacers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…f00ebacked Pacers | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Cavaliers | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Pacers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…3bb5backed Pacers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Pacers | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Pacers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…3ae6backed Pacers | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 244 | 29.1%71 W · 173 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed Pacers | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 87 | 58.6%51 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5962backed Pacers | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Cavaliers | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Cavaliers | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8254backed Pacers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.