Fifa International · resolved market
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2bb22dbbece793c1b8074300a415e99e197aeaa5e3d36387bcaf62a5ccebbee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 6c | 2,192$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 19c | 1,488$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.73 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 19c | 1,301$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.64 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 19c | 1,200$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 1c | 1,074$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 20c | 988.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 20c | 754.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 9c | 512$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 10c | 485$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 21c | 475$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 402.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 308.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a4…a371backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…7c8fbacked Yes | 79c | 206.24$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 20c | 204.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…3ce9backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 19c | 192.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 80c | 185.19$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 20c | 164.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 20c | 137.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf004…c9d6backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…4c57backed Yes | 80c | 106.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 402 | 39.8%160 W · 242 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 97.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 20c | 63.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86b…ed0abacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…2512backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Yes | 80c | 58.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…af7abacked Yes | 80c | 49.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4990…d300backed Yes | 79c | 37.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 667 | 45%300 W · 367 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…2bb1backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b5…5ce5backed Yes | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…36f4backed Yes | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…16a6backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar?this page
- Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland?No won
- Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.