TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cardinals vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Cardinals, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$332,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$346,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $332,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18d2…81e0backed Cardinals53c172,596$91,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,476.341540%6 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Orioles47c77,614$36,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,135.2817351.4%89 W · 84 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Orioles47c35,252$16,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,683.435349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Orioles47c26,334$12,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,953.4823752.7%125 W · 112 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Orioles47c23,768$11,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,566.9820850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Orioles74c22,271$16,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,89486751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Cardinals53c20,779$11,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,013.127948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles48c11,794$5,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,160.861,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2995…6d7abacked Orioles48c9,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,680366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e95…d495backed Cardinals52c9,000$4,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,68020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Orioles50c8,117$4,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,076.9224553.5%131 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles47c8,109$3,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,267.071,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Cardinals37c7,749$2,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,867.0415745.2%71 W · 86 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a1…ec2fbacked Orioles47c7,392$3,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,917.7614048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9353…acfbbacked Orioles78c7,240$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Cardinals50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00021941.1%90 W · 129 L-19.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Cardinals52c5,511$2,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,859.0513353.4%71 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Orioles48c5,436$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,835.781,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Cardinals52c5,316$2,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,764.2698149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Cardinals1c5,304$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3541643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Orioles56c4,998$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.369,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles48c4,775$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,485.62,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Orioles47c4,160$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,204.816352.1%85 W · 78 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Cardinals6c4,098$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.874564.4%29 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Orioles47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12025550.6%129 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Orioles47c3,780$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.445248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Orioles48c3,548$1,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.4476456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Orioles48c3,321$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,72711153.2%59 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Cardinals11c2,687$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012624.6%31 W · 95 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Cardinals24c2,537$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Cardinals46c2,221$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02031248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Cardinals20c2,077$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.332,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Cardinals52c2,039$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.6828447.5%135 W · 149 L-20.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c1f…20c8backed Orioles49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0205100%5 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Cardinals51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9769249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…c2f8backed Cardinals40c1,984$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.563148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ecb…070fbacked Cardinals53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Cardinals35c1,774$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62225835.3%91 W · 167 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Cardinals37c1,616$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5981,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Cardinals49c1,613$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.288549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Cardinals53c1,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79521748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Orioles47c1,400$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7429843.9%43 W · 55 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Cardinals53c1,286$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.5339041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Cardinals27c1,225$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32520523.4%48 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Orioles55c1,200$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.7597950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Cardinals42c1,194$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7727…366fbacked Cardinals51c1,163$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.13425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0c…2512backed Orioles49c1,135$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Cardinals17c1,117$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.948543.5%37 W · 48 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3efc…5e48backed Cardinals51c1,020$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4ce…c3c2backed Orioles49c1,000$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5121346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed3…f05fbacked Cardinals51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-41%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Orioles49c999.97$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.9933349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Cardinals51c998.62$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.287650%38 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a0…8e5dbacked Cardinals51c980$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick54cpaid-58.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Cardinals10c978.36$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa93d…36cabacked Orioles49c965$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.15475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+60.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f01…6f56backed Cardinals51c937$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.87540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d4…5f79backed Cardinals52c931$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-47%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles49c900$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45968656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd019…0003backed Orioles48c820$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x078c…a68abacked Orioles49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4081464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+33%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12a6…6db5backed Orioles49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4081145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed Cardinals16c793.69$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1630928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc2…8b69backed Cardinals52c769$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc91a…c6b8backed Cardinals52c752.6$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.8810746.7%50 W · 57 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ca2…55e4backed Cardinals31c719.99$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.67154.9%39 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Cardinals10c635.65$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5737446.8%175 W · 199 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Orioles65c623.19$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.134,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1565…e6b0backed Cardinals51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Orioles47c582.64$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.814047.9%67 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Cardinals3c564.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.75053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Cardinals37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20039436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Cardinals37c539.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce6…e1b0backed Cardinals25c529.98$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1354146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9346…cb76backed Cardinals36c478.53$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-44.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29db…ae12backed Orioles48c410.97$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.711050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58db…ea03backed Cardinals51c409.8$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20912347.2%58 W · 65 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Cardinals43c406.39$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6138245.5%174 W · 208 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Cardinals47c400$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18951151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Cardinals13c353.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.11911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb58d…818ebacked Orioles65c329.83$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.544146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48fe…62a1backed Cardinals47c320.24$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Orioles50c315.28$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.645,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4c…31c0backed Orioles50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8cf…afa0backed Cardinals51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Cardinals53c283.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Orioles74c275.92$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5463942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…20d0backed Cardinals22c274.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604043.5%14 W · 390 L-19.4wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Cardinals52c269.23$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14023852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Cardinals48c251.54$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.28652.3%45 W · 41 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Cardinals52c230.77$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020150.2%101 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Cardinals53c226.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d27…f6cfbacked Cardinals38c225.03$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.424025%10 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54f2…d0e3backed Orioles52c224.98$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.8914951.7%77 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fd5…9801backed Cardinals50c215.28$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.643141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb59b…a8e0backed Cardinals53c213.21$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1132268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e4e…437cbacked Orioles47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.771586.7%13 W · 2 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick56cpaid+65.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.