WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs. Sparks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe33860d77c94462423e311f78edbd441e7649dd9eb38cf1968c9f255b410f1c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Mercury, Sparks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Sparks | 43c | 3,009$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.39 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 67c | 2,999$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.58 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Sparks | 30c | 2,646$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.78 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Mercury | 57c | 2,493$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.94 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Sparks | 17c | 1,428$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.59 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Sparks | 30c | 1,276$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f587backed Mercury | 79c | 964.75$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.39 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Sparks | 28c | 746.65$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.23 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mercury | 61c | 716.88$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.98 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 58c | 612.81$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.38 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury | 67c | 609.02$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.58 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Mercury | 76c | 603.79$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Sparks | 4c | 570.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 62 | 4.8%3 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Sparks | 26c | 500$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Sparks | 3c | 455.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Mercury | 64c | 398.87$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Sparks | 42c | 359.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.69 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Sparks | 22c | 332.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Mercury | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Mercury | 60c | 266.98$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.1 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Sparks | 37c | 266$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Mercury | 76c | 261.54$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sparks | 39c | 257.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sparks | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Sparks | 23c | 208.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Sparks | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Sparks | 40c | 199.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sparks | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…9110backed Mercury | 68c | 199.45$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Sparks | 42c | 191.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mercury | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Sparks | 38c | 164.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…76ffbacked Mercury | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Mercury | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Sparks | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mercury | 70c | 129.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Mercury | 71c | 125.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Sparks | 40c | 125.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Mercury | 59c | 124.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Sparks | 39c | 114.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Mercury | 60c | 111.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4f…a90bbacked Sparks | 33c | 111.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sparks | 16c | 110.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Sparks | 25c | 105.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…98f1backed Mercury | 59c | 103.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Sparks | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Mercury | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Mercury | 59c | 98.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Mercury | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Mercury | 79c | 75.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sparks | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Sparks | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Mercury | 79c | 50.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Mercury | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…2b45backed Mercury | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…79c7backed Sparks | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Mercury | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dba…4cf3backed Mercury | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…5e57backed Sparks | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…7dedbacked Mercury | 63c | 23.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f5…e262backed Mercury | 60c | 23.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Mercury | 56c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0e…b61cbacked Mercury | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.