Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe391b55e15a64bc2377e1db899f0980aa7e505e2db23c721e057dbb3b26390e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,025$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ee…7030backed Yes | 2c | 897.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 35c | 700$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.76 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 628.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 37c | 549.17$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 49c | 236.03$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.39 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…e479backed Yes | 31c | 228.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 64c | 212.59$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 206.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 23c | 201.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 53c | 190.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 70c | 162.97$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 161.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 159.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 157$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 152.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 149.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 137.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 133.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 62c | 131.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 29c | 128.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 125$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 14c | 124.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 121.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 118.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 73c | 109.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 107.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 100.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 95.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 85.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 81.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…27ebbacked No | 52c | 79.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 28c | 76.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 65c | 71.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…b527backed Yes | 48c | 66.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 61.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 60.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 55.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…bc59backed Yes | 36c | 55.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 67c | 52.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 50.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 34c | 46.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…8ea3backed Yes | 35c | 45.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 42.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 42.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 27c | 40.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 37.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 49c | 36.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 48c | 35.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 34.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 28.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 26.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 60c | 25.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 55c | 20.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 55c | 20.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 20.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 56c | 18.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 75c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 16.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 74c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…cf3bbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.