Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15b2c595ed0b02659db22595335afef17708565a8ff88ac855c8fba5363b0dbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 2,208$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 3c | 661.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 36c | 654.36$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.48 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 194.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 179.52$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 161.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 158.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 151.76$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 70c | 150.94$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 147.3$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked No | 77c | 137.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 131.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 125$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 119.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 30c | 118.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 111.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 12c | 104.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 11c | 103.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…b527backed Yes | 39c | 91.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 88.36$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 84.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 80.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 78.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 25c | 76.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 68c | 71.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 22c | 70.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 54.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 54.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 51.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 34c | 49.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 24c | 49.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 47.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 33c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 46.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 30c | 45.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 37c | 44.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 44.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 52c | 43.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 43.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 40.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 39.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 56c | 39.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 37.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 33.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…a5abbacked Yes | 40c | 25.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 25.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…8ac7backed No | 67c | 24.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 21.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 20.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 19.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 65c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 65c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…afc6backed No | 71c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 66c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…8ea3backed No | 70c | 18.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 17.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 73c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 78c | 13.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 12.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.