TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Luka Dončić win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,662 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c34,441$34 inLost-$34.44340%0 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c12,105$24 inLost-$24.211,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f51…7b9ebacked Yes3c3,224$110 inLost-$11010835.2%38 W · 70 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes1c2,829$23 inLost-$22.726839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Yes5c1,926$89 inLost-$8917147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x567c…245abacked Yes4c1,483$62 inLost-$61.98616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x095e…abc5backed Yes2c1,007$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes1c952.84$11 inLost-$11.388057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7e…f1bebacked Yes2c625$10 inLost-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0554…7a1fbacked Yes2c556.11$10 inLost-$1018337.2%68 W · 115 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d26…2a13backed Yes2c500.86$10 inLost-$101010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-82.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef62…fc8fbacked Yes3c415.12$12 inLost-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c6…d823backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$206959.4%41 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4014…b8ecbacked Yes13c153.85$20 inLost-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fda…8405backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.