TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will LeBron James win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,723 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c10,665$11 inLost-$11.33340%0 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Yes3c2,500$85 inLost-$85.2423257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes3c1,741$47 inLost-$46.5976054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes4c1,576$58 inLost-$58.0226839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d26…2a13backed Yes4c1,318$50 inLost-$501010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-82.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes2c1,000$23 inLost-$2395641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c3…f427backed Yes4c760.49$28 inLost-$28.511546.1%53 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes3c650$22 inLost-$22.4510348.5%50 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c1…deecbacked Yes8c649.99$50 inLost-$50850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes4c516.53$19 inLost-$18.9911826.3%31 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c476.7$14 inLost-$13.92795.1%4 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes4c375$15 inLost-$156643.9%29 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…1e3abacked Yes3c346.22$10 inLost-$107732.5%25 W · 52 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c308.42$13 inLost-$13.121,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d7…66d3backed Yes3c287.79$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db2…cc8cbacked Yes8c264.94$20 inLost-$2017153.8%92 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b02…30fdbacked Yes7c224.65$15 inLost-$14.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Yes5c221.95$11 inLost-$11.1242335.9%152 W · 271 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x934f…5054backed Yes7c216.29$14 inLost-$14.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba14…a571backed Yes7c214.55$15 inLost-$152850%14 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+46.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb336…5091backed Yes7c140.3$10 inLost-$10.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.