TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Nikola Jokić win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,626
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,626 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b90…2194backed Yes2c33,000$774 inLost-$77419747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c18,887$19 inLost-$18.89340%0 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes1c10,639$157 inLost-$157.53225%8 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c3,459$76 inLost-$76.3984.1%4 W · 94 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,585$47 inLost-$47.481,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3597…28c4backed Yes4c2,027$83 inLost-$83.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefd0…9262backed Yes4c1,665$68 inLost-$68.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes3c1,426$42 inLost-$42.2426839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes2c835.79$20 inLost-$20.2920855.8%116 W · 92 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0abc…a153backed Yes4c765$31 inLost-$31.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe430…5815backed Yes3c751.94$23 inLost-$22.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x095e…abc5backed Yes3c676.5$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Yes2c600$14 inLost-$1432347.1%152 W · 171 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5282…4e7ebacked Yes4c480.69$20 inLost-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid+11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad9…1b47backed Yes3c479.51$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes3c428.96$13 inLost-$12.8726043.8%114 W · 146 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ca7…91ddbacked Yes4c361.56$14 inLost-$14.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf720…66acbacked Yes7c200.35$14 inLost-$14.36848.5%33 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.