NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. 49ers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a996d6524257d11064a29292b56295f5babd6ef33692bdc711bedd7a88abf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof Chargers , 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fa0…7894backed Chargers | 47c | 5,387$2,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,540.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed 49ers | 57c | 3,139$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.03 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed 49ers | 45c | 2,616$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.03 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed 49ers | 53c | 1,800$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed 49ers | 65c | 1,289$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.24 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Chargers | 59c | 1,238$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Chargers | 55c | 1,105$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.74 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Chargers | 4c | 1,100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Chargers | 48c | 1,059$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Chargers | 62c | 993.19$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.78 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked 49ers | 64c | 930$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.53 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked 49ers | 49c | 575$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.47 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked 49ers | 43c | 399.22$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.56 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Chargers | 17c | 399$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Chargers | 78c | 382.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked 49ers | 26c | 377.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.78 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Chargers | 57c | 350$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Chargers | 61c | 325.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed 49ers | 48c | 302.07$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked 49ers | 43c | 276.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.83 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked 49ers | 39c | 270$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.75 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked 49ers | 47c | 253.06$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Chargers | 14c | 225.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed 49ers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Chargers | 53c | 212.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…61b1backed Chargers | 56c | 212.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Chargers | 47c | 212.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chargers | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…d90cbacked Chargers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Chargers | 55c | 180.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a7…cac6backed Chargers | 56c | 178.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Chargers | 57c | 175.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Chargers | 34c | 162.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…95f3backed 49ers | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked 49ers | 40c | 137.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked 49ers | 62c | 123.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked 49ers | 43c | 115.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Chargers | 57c | 101.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked 49ers | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked 49ers | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Chargers | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed 49ers | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac29…fa88backed Chargers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582b…20afbacked Chargers | 26c | 76.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…ca64backed Chargers | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed 49ers | 46c | 68.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…e1e8backed 49ers | 49c | 61.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13da…c97fbacked 49ers | 44c | 59.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Chargers | 71c | 56.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked 49ers | 46c | 50.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Chargers | 54c | 49.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked 49ers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa1…5660backed 49ers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Chargers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Chargers | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed 49ers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Chargers | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked 49ers | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Chargers | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked 49ers | 45c | 39.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked 49ers | 43c | 39.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Chargers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Chargers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed 49ers | 50c | 32.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed 49ers | 64c | 31.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Chargers | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 207 | 60.9%126 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed 49ers | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked 49ers | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked 49ers | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…7507backed Chargers | 55c | 19.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.