MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4bc68e3a572025f5f0905aacf4f75f861db604775c94d4bb02e09eab3712b0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 37c | 4,006$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.69 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…a081backed No | 63c | 2,824$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.23 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 59c | 1,755$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.11 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 63c | 1,081$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.04 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 40c | 1,049$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.71 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 38c | 640.63$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.63 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Yes | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed No | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 37c | 294$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 252.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked No | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 37c | 97.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…ef8bbacked No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…6068backed No | 63c | 52.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 41c | 43.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 43c | 36.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked No | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jaysthis page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.