MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb54e8755b3bcf19dffc1a172025ed143c7973e87261b04356be60a0428f465c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 4,178$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 32c | 4,095$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.47 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 32c | 1,896$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 67c | 1,313$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.63 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 35c | 1,024$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 67c | 804$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.46 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 22c | 595.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 32c | 594.69$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 492.19$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 31c | 426$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 78c | 415.26$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 35c | 399.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 68c | 399$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 16c | 331.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 326.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 37c | 275.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 67c | 244.35$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Under | 80c | 201.45$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 7c | 195.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 34c | 182.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 32c | 182.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 36c | 172.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90fe…b7b8backed Under | 68c | 152.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 79c | 142.86$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 141.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 32c | 106$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 68c | 100.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 68c | 100.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 70c | 91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 69c | 77.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 68c | 53.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 69c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 68c | 42.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8237…ae4bbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Under | 68c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 69c | 17.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.