NFL · resolved market
Will the Giants trade for Jaylen Waddle?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4e4c2aa5b98bf90be7c5cbf89f8b9651c0cadf4dcc8d0a2e3b0074986ae7e6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e2c…0273backed Yes | 36c | 687.19$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5655…b21dbacked Yes | 50c | 596.51$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Yes | 22c | 450.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 69c | 361.87$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 79c | 345.85$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed No | 64c | 208.57$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 69c | 202$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…842fbacked No | 25c | 188.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +175.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 76c | 180$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 21c | 159.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcc…841cbacked No | 59c | 147.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…9c86backed No | 78c | 143.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 77c | 116.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf939…2e92backed Yes | 36c | 110.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d3…86f1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 88.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 80.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 77c | 64.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 31c | 51.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -6.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedfe…c7c8backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked No | 71c | 28.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 65c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…d059backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.