Qairat FK vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5c1616b1d89b13fb61a64e4e60688032af50a3e11f72e04d98011db62d50e52

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $54,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,073 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1b2a…cde8backed Over	0c	13,750$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	39cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	45c	5,186$2,354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,832.18	1,959	44.1%863 W · 1,096 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…1081backed Over	80c	3,208$2,566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,566.02	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Over	50c	3,043$1,533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,532.52	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	50c	2,068$1,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,026.86	582	48.8%284 W · 298 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	50c	1,584$795 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$789.17	343	42.3%145 W · 198 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	20c	1,500$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,200	243	27.2%66 W · 177 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	21c	1,405$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,114.74	397	46.9%186 W · 211 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under	50c	1,200$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$599.18	375	44%165 W · 210 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	41c	1,079$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.21	1,487	40.3%599 W · 888 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over	47c	1,064$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Over	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Over	54c	845.76$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.36	152	50.7%77 W · 75 L	+9.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc97…7d32backed Over	37c	762.95$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.29	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Over	50c	675.18$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.59	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.3wins	-0.23per pick	53cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb737…98b9backed Over	79c	629.52$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.44per pick	69cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9eca…fc20backed Over	80c	625$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Under	50c	601.16$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.58	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b8…5cf9backed Over	51c	588.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Under	54c	555.56$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.56	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	47c	532.8$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.94	460	48.5%223 W · 237 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under	20c	532.4$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.92	434	27.4%119 W · 315 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	47c	488.12$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.88	107	44.9%48 W · 59 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9f…c934backed Over	4c	445.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	20c	444$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$355.2	189	50.3%95 W · 94 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	20c	400$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320	387	48.3%187 W · 200 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Under	50c	396.08$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.08	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over	79c	379.75$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	29	69%20 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	67cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c9…7b64backed Over	79c	349.95$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.22	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4734…4ed5backed Over	51c	293.96$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.92	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc40f…1950backed Over	79c	230.38$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Under	44c	227.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.27	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	79c	221$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.02	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed Over	60c	200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-4.0wins	-0.21per pick	63cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0954…bfffbacked Over	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb0…cfdabacked Over	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	57cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9048…07f2backed Over	80c	188.31$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc88f…987abacked Under	21c	185$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.15	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+60.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	54c	183.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc76b…5fbabacked Under	60c	178.28$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.31	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	56cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4fe…7365backed Under	61c	163.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.93	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc450…f2f7backed Over	79c	155.92$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.18	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	71cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ef2…50e0backed Over	79c	145.57$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	72cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07ce…75e0backed Over	79c	145.57$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	73cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under	72c	138.89$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.89	102	49%50 W · 52 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over	51c	138.47$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.62	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb433…f543backed Under	74c	135.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.14	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ac…188dbacked Under	48c	122.54$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.72	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeecc…6930backed Over	53c	120.96$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.14	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	-5.1wins	-0.12per pick	38cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	46c	117.41$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.89	383	43.1%165 W · 218 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb34d…ef8bbacked Over	30c	115$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb52e…cdcebacked Over	44c	106.82$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	+7.3wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x591a…aec2backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Under	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under	21c	95$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.05	290	34.5%100 W · 190 L	+16.0wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	44c	89$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.16	209	47.8%100 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf94c…8a42backed Under	20c	82.35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.88	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.2wins	+0.27per pick	35cpaid	+126.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over	49c	71.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b7…37d5backed Over	38c	70.53$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.8	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x119f…2c27backed Over	52c	65.38$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Under	61c	55.77$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.73	41	65.9%27 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Over	78c	50$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	69	58%40 W · 29 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	63cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x884d…1da6backed Over	65c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over	79c	50$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	34	82.4%28 W · 6 L	+3.5wins	+0.10per pick	72cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd323…64acbacked Over	48c	43.29$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.78	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d54…81a1backed Over	43c	42.43$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	52c	41$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.54	338	51.5%174 W · 164 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cbf8backed Over	42c	39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.46	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52a4…7fe3backed Over	64c	31.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbf…98b6backed Over	79c	30.09$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.77	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	76cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under	45c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf8c…4bc2backed Under	50c	29.67$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.84	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f0…327cbacked Under	57c	28$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.04	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0da9…9d56backed Over	79c	25.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffac…d469backed Over	79c	25.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1aa…378bbacked Over	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee09…1199backed Over	55c	23.53$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.94	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Under	53c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.81	80	53.8%43 W · 37 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over	80c	18.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	66	66.7%44 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	68cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1762…e0debacked Over	80c	14.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.6wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39ea…bb3fbacked Over	79c	13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	79cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b33…6c89backed Over	80c	12.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-3.4wins	-0.34per pick	54cpaid	-74%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Qairat FK vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 1.5this page
Qairat FK vs. Olympiakós SFP: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Qairat FK vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 2.5Under won
Qairat FK vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Olympiakós SFP (-1.5)Qairat FK won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Qairat FK vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event