Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Makoto Ochi vs Kasidit Samrej
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5ef218f22d53ef0da122f752379248c3cf553de048fb9dddb1b1513e450c38d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Makoto Ochiof Makoto Ochi, Kasidit Samrej
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Kasidit Samrej | 46c | 30,674$14,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,214.05 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…2f4bbacked Makoto Ochi | 47c | 6,356$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,356.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Makoto Ochi | 24c | 5,384$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080.44 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Makoto Ochi | 60c | 4,446$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.46 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Makoto Ochi | 61c | 3,118$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.81 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Kasidit Samrej | 36c | 2,677$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.79 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Makoto Ochi | 35c | 2,443$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.29 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Makoto Ochi | 72c | 2,423$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.93 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Makoto Ochi | 16c | 2,006$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.25 | 1,229 | 53.1%653 W · 576 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Makoto Ochi | 80c | 1,584$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.69 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Makoto Ochi | 46c | 1,143$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.11 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Makoto Ochi | 43c | 796.89$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.88 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Makoto Ochi | 45c | 792.14$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.39 | 1,179 | 52.8%623 W · 556 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Makoto Ochi | 35c | 635.6$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.65 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Makoto Ochi | 37c | 633.11$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.72 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Makoto Ochi | 45c | 550.59$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.55 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Makoto Ochi | 42c | 530.58$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.16 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Makoto Ochi | 44c | 513.21$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.97 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Makoto Ochi | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.28 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Makoto Ochi | 18c | 433.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.79 | 790 | 47.5%375 W · 415 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Makoto Ochi | 34c | 430.25$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.01 | 1,730 | 52.2%903 W · 827 L | -8.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Kasidit Samrej | 24c | 355.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Makoto Ochi | 49c | 305.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.52 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Makoto Ochi | 53c | 236$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 582 | 48.3%281 W · 301 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…56ffbacked Kasidit Samrej | 40c | 230.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed Kasidit Samrej | 36c | 230$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 532 | 41.5%221 W · 311 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kasidit Samrej | 68c | 207.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.75 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Makoto Ochi | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 568 | 53.9%306 W · 262 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…e330backed Kasidit Samrej | 34c | 199.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 439 | 47.2%207 W · 232 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Makoto Ochi | 15c | 196.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.32 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Makoto Ochi | 19c | 181.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.14 | 433 | 59.6%258 W · 175 L | +26.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Makoto Ochi | 17c | 154$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.91 | 249 | 28.9%72 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Kasidit Samrej | 79c | 151.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Kasidit Samrej | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Kasidit Samrej | 78c | 141.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 241 | 59.3%143 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Kasidit Samrej | 61c | 135.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Kasidit Samrej | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 154 | 56.5%87 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Kasidit Samrej | 57c | 116.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Makoto Ochi | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Kasidit Samrej | 68c | 91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Kasidit Samrej | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Kasidit Samrej | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Kasidit Samrej | 68c | 88.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Makoto Ochi | 17c | 87.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 746 | 46.1%344 W · 402 L | -30.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Kasidit Samrej | 67c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Makoto Ochi | 41c | 74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 881 | 57.9%510 W · 371 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Kasidit Samrej | 47c | 72.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Kasidit Samrej | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c6f3backed Makoto Ochi | 27c | 58.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…697abacked Makoto Ochi | 20c | 50.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Kasidit Samrej | 78c | 40.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Kasidit Samrej | 73c | 37.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Kasidit Samrej | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Makoto Ochi | 45c | 33.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 602 | 41.2%248 W · 354 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Kasidit Samrej | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,456 | 45.1%656 W · 800 L | +42.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…be94backed Kasidit Samrej | 78c | 21.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…210cbacked Makoto Ochi | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Kasidit Samrej | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c62…f73cbacked Makoto Ochi | 53c | 19.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Kasidit Samrej | 80c | 18.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 139 | 65.5%91 W · 48 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.