Earnings · resolved market
Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6a0c2bc37267591c05f1c7e7a263b7f7de88ad10bda5eb5f368d449b9baaa63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 20c | 999.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…f361backed Yes | 78c | 783.98$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Yes | 79c | 601.64$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 23c | 488.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 22c | 376.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 70c | 299.95$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 28c | 262.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 24c | 195.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 75c | 193.9$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 27c | 188.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Yes | 76c | 149.4$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked Yes | 76c | 141$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…9f02backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 26c | 113.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 74c | 107.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 69c | 104$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 11c | 103.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed No | 30c | 97.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 27c | 93.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 23c | 88.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked Yes | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 70.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 68.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc531…62a5backed No | 30c | 60.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7996…531dbacked No | 30c | 60.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 26c | 58.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 21c | 58.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 74c | 52.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…9862backed Yes | 78c | 51.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed No | 30c | 50.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9913…3873backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +534%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked No | 23c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…55e7backed Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed94…53fcbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55aa…4f8ebacked Yes | 80c | 32.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 32.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 74c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…21f7backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc21a…ea32backed Yes | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…89d1backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 70c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a8…1aecbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6604…825abacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…c84dbacked Yes | 70c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 73c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Yes | 79c | 13.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7a…737bbacked Yes | 77c | 13.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 75c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…dba3backed Yes | 75c | 13.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…65cebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…e7b4backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.