Earnings · resolved market
Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe724500a327bd2b511a0f819931b274d9df550a16fab238e28a01704bed48374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 3c | 5,015$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…4c71backed No | 2c | 1,919$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 38c | 1,396$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.03 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10be…58c7backed No | 1c | 804.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked No | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 63c | 350$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…741ebacked No | 7c | 296.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Yes | 50c | 287.17$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 57c | 275.14$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 41c | 274.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.24 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 46c | 261.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.05 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…491abacked No | 77c | 260.64$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 185.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 60c | 179.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 168.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed No | 26c | 142.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 60c | 126.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…9b5fbacked No | 56c | 102.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 100.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…36b7backed Yes | 45c | 99.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3be…0e17backed Yes | 54c | 91.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 55c | 70.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 20c | 65.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2aaebacked No | 41c | 63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 49c | 60.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…9b7ebacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be4…ffb9backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 50c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 30c | 52.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…687ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 35c | 43.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…ca6cbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…d5eabacked Yes | 43c | 29.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ce…321cbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 49c | 20.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…b623backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.