Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7522edff74d6d952ee1e37f897e7394695321d8d7431b60eac654097bfedb51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 47c | 1,011$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.02 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 49c | 667.09$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 46c | 433.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 14c | 399.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 315.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 22c | 228.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 216.27$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…0d58backed No | 54c | 175.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 153$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 133.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 121.49$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 43c | 118.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 29c | 116.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 50c | 110.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 104.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 30c | 84.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 81.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked Yes | 51c | 62.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 60.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…da4abacked Yes | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 47.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6d…fe12backed Yes | 52c | 42.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc37…a2f4backed Yes | 44c | 42.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 36.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 52c | 25.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 23.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Yes | 60c | 21.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170d…064cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…d29dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…1ec6backed Yes | 63c | 18.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…4b2abacked Yes | 63c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 19?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 19?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 19?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.