Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21dbc068f224c6a73870a12d5e95a4e67498d80095348957e5ba9278921f0acc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8afa…adb6backed No | 71c | 1,977$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,610$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.28 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 29c | 1,538$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.35 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 37c | 1,007$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.54 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 43c | 627.31$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.13 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 35c | 622.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.24 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 35c | 616.88$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.97 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 557.18$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 73c | 554.16$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.45 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…c236backed Yes | 49c | 529.65$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 347.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.03 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 290$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed No | 12c | 262.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 230$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 220.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 33c | 202.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.46 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.03 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 196$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 76c | 183.64$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 153.91$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 149.05$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 141.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 56c | 116.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 45c | 104.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 21c | 77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 61.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 79c | 60.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 22c | 58.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 55.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 53.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 77c | 50.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 47.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…c44ebacked Yes | 39c | 45.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 39.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 35.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…21eabacked Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e70…c53ebacked Yes | 30c | 33.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Yes | 34c | 33.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bb…a382backed Yes | 39c | 32.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 26.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 23.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ad…121abacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…745cbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 19?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 19?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 19?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 19?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.