Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe753ea1406d3b5080f4ad339a36ca49a33ad417a58c6a22d0d236c5523a58e22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 28c | 447.01$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.94 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 415.37$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 78c | 409.08$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.36 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 319.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.45 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 310.17$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.86 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 37c | 269.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.35 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 60c | 242$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 214.66$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 197.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.59 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 27c | 189.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.85 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 179$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 176.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 167.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 29c | 165.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.51 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 160$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 143.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 133.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 51c | 131.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 55c | 131.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 32c | 125.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 118.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 113.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 27c | 112.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 67c | 99.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6411…6b97backed Yes | 70c | 98.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 92.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 91.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 37c | 79.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 65c | 74.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 25c | 66.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 74c | 66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 62.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 27c | 61.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 53c | 61.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 57.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93e…646cbacked Yes | 32c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 52.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 49.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 40c | 49.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 46.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb280…daefbacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 44.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 31c | 43.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 42.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 27c | 41.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 28c | 39.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f93…35afbacked Yes | 77c | 36.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 35.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 73c | 33.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 30.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 42c | 29.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 44c | 29.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 28.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 28.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 51c | 27.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 77c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 25.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 23.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 45c | 23.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 55c | 23.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 54c | 20.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd1…b143backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…9d40backed No | 78c | 19.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184b…67b2backed Yes | 62c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 76c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…7055backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 75c | 17.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.