MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8f1b12ff18c0aad2cc98f9f20b5e541c6a725bb373751127cc40cddf11e1d9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 50c | 20,000$9,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,987.18 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 13,432$6,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,719.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 40c | 12,797$5,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,118.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 40c | 7,955$3,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,198.72 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 6,307$3,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 4,509$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,313.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 1,612$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.33 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 36c | 830$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.24 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 64c | 688$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.68 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 509.19$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.43 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 46c | 290.22$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.25 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 40c | 215.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 56c | 202.6$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.61 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bb…bc01backed Under | 53c | 188.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 60c | 180.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 40c | 139.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 20c | 130.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 62c | 126$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 36c | 87.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 46c | 82.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 61c | 73.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Over | 77c | 66.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 35c | 56.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 40c | 50.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 46c | 24.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 44c | 23.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…3b6cbacked Under | 55c | 22.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 56c | 20.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…7fa0backed Over | 59c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0171…3249backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.