MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56e9747c2fed17e452d5f5af72b890291172cb4bf37d5b567925d537c475e709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 11,111$5,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,222.16 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 47c | 10,927$5,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,135.69 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 40c | 9,718$3,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,828.23 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 9,189$4,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,318.94 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 60c | 8,884$5,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,326.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 7,623$3,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,718.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 54c | 4,566$2,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.58 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 4,006$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 40c | 3,183$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.41 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.98 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…bf14backed Under | 56c | 2,218$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 1,493$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 1,262$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.52 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…ffcabacked Over | 47c | 744.68$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 709.14$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 628.69$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 80c | 500$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 472$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.57 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 57c | 365.42$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Under | 54c | 357.41$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.41 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 307.41$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 36c | 262.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 72c | 250$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 44c | 225.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Over | 49c | 221.13$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.15 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 43c | 209.91$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 29c | 209.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.03 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 61c | 199.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.62 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Under | 28c | 194.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 62c | 183.08$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 178.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Under | 58c | 162.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70f…a14fbacked Under | 54c | 161.48$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…f874backed Over | 78c | 144.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 31c | 142.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 68c | 132.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…e1cbbacked Over | 79c | 130$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 63c | 124$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 46c | 100.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 43c | 95.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 54c | 94.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 52c | 94.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 48c | 93.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 52c | 88.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Under | 23c | 86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 31c | 85.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 43c | 76.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…1aa4backed Over | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 43c | 68.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 51c | 51.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Under | 52c | 36.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 76c | 36.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Over | 76c | 29.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 75c | 23.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…3b6cbacked Over | 64c | 20.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b48…1d20backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 76c | 17.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.