MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c915d8366a96846bd4436061a64f6e68c3fbc1b7fb0d15765d213cf6597137b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 7,498$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300.06 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 56c | 7,078$3,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,107.3 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 2,591$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.15 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 39c | 2,387$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.99 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 45c | 2,211$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.95 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 56c | 2,150$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.98 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 56c | 1,677$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.82 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 57c | 1,359$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 942.99$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.91 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 896.82$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.38 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 55c | 765.99$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.43 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Under | 45c | 540$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Over | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 67c | 472$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.94 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 58c | 395.55$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 309.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 70c | 246$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 451 | 49.2%222 W · 229 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 132.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 17c | 131.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 49c | 81.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 74.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 56c | 70.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 69.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…2d48backed Over | 56c | 55.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 53.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 61c | 33.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Over | 76c | 33.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 392 | 53.6%210 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 321 | 53.9%173 W · 148 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…c19bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 57c | 19.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.