TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,912

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,900 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a26…937ebacked New York Mets59c30,000$17,787 inLost-$17,786.6361351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies50c13,777$6,917 inWon+$6,859.4611,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies48c7,396$3,568 inWon+$3,828.148,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies41c5,302$2,179 inWon+$3,122.6710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies42c3,291$1,384 inWon+$1,906.724,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed New York Mets33c2,493$835 inLost-$834.991,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies62c2,026$1,255 inWon+$771.1312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies68c1,158$788 inWon+$370.114,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed New York Mets33c705.52$233 inLost-$232.822,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies65c512.69$332 inWon+$180.948,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Philadelphia Phillies60c316.67$190 inWon+$126.6722867.1%153 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets70c152.61$106 inLost-$106.083,45651.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L+107.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Philadelphia Phillies60c149$89 inWon+$60.231,81349.1%891 W · 922 L-26.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Philadelphia Phillies46c115.91$53 inWon+$62.8977353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed New York Mets23c115.65$27 inLost-$27.111,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed New York Mets35c106$37 inLost-$37.119540%78 W · 117 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets74c100$74 inLost-$746,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd879…2f44backed New York Mets20c100$20 inLost-$2012346.3%57 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf39d…aa9dbacked New York Mets32c93.75$30 inLost-$309424.5%23 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed New York Mets30c89.9$27 inLost-$26.9720944%92 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies74c68.17$51 inWon+$17.452,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Philadelphia Phillies43c60.96$26 inWon+$34.5934639.6%137 W · 209 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed New York Mets28c59.16$16 inLost-$16.446,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets75c55.31$41 inLost-$41.484,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed New York Mets43c55$24 inLost-$23.7571750.1%359 W · 358 L-1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies25c50$13 inWon+$37.581651.8%423 W · 393 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets68c47.7$32 inLost-$32.445,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies37c41.94$15 inWon+$26.55,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf824…651fbacked Philadelphia Phillies39c38.02$15 inWon+$23.2711052.7%58 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Philadelphia Phillies52c26.6$14 inWon+$12.772,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f5…5e42backed Philadelphia Phillies62c24.19$15 inWon+$9.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3834…d360backed New York Mets60c20.36$12 inLost-$12.132846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ac…427fbacked Philadelphia Phillies60c17.69$11 inWon+$7.087050%35 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies67c15$10 inWon+$4.92,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Philadelphia Phillies70c14.99$11 inWon+$4.441,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e00…d2bfbacked Philadelphia Phillies73c14.29$10 inWon+$3.935560%33 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.