NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe910a45965bb101ea0a19d72256b2917a26ae25fd977c2f900fdb1563ab615a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 5,372$2,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,722.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 49c | 2,020$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.2 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Over | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 934$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.66 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 40c | 474$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.77 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 68c | 284.18$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.52 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…bf74backed Under | 51c | 209.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d03…2717backed Over | 51c | 209.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 48c | 193.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 153.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 65c | 132.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 131$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 21c | 75.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 67.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 49c | 56.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 61c | 49.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Under | 49c | 47.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8396…0de1backed Under | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c2…2f0bbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 34.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 243.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Pelicans vs. HeatHeat won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 246.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.