NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b3a934faae00821bd40ff20b644616b518f6fc0d6a0d1aa7f597c002973e51f

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Heat, Pelicans
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,816 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat	47c	2,813$1,322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,490.89	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Pelicans	53c	2,700$1,431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,431	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9acb…d2c7backed Heat	47c	2,128$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,127.66	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-4.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-23%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Pelicans	52c	2,077$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Heat	44c	1,024$448 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$576.44	185	53%98 W · 87 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Pelicans	56c	1,008$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.24	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Heat	55c	853.51$469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.51	238	45%107 W · 131 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans	45c	810.51$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.73	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	49c	783.92$382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.51	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans	53c	676.33$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.15	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Heat	53c	380$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.6	139	51.1%71 W · 68 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93d…f36dbacked Heat	46c	374.07$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202	24	75%18 W · 6 L	+6.3wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans	47c	325.19$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.84	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Pelicans	57c	300$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Pelicans	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4010…77d4backed Pelicans	53c	120$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.6	481	46.2%222 W · 259 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Heat	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	337	30.3%102 W · 235 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d29…4083backed Pelicans	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	173	41%71 W · 102 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Heat	47c	85.19$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.15	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Pelicans	54c	74.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	195	48.7%95 W · 100 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Pelicans	57c	63.16$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x421c…6fa3backed Pelicans	41c	48.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed Heat	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	127	35.4%45 W · 82 L	-12.4wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat	50c	42.56$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pelicans	51c	39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.89	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1725…7405backed Pelicans	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Pelicans	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	139	38.8%54 W · 85 L	-14.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc95f…357fbacked Pelicans	52c	35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	168	52.4%88 W · 80 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Heat	47c	24.57$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.02	69	65.2%45 W · 24 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event