NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 242.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51f532e99c7c2783a4de72ef90341fcf575a1de362533e5cf6b335bd9ad1c4c7

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,562

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,471 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	51c	2,626$1,340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,339.84	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f72…0841backed Under	47c	1,483$691 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$791.91	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	53c	1,192$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635.67	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	51c	1,093$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.24	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over	51c	1,022$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Under	50c	920$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	186	51.6%96 W · 90 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	56c	217.58$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.57	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	332	46.1%153 W · 179 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd863…6905backed Under	50c	177$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.5	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596b…6c22backed Over	51c	177$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.27	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf42…d698backed Under	40c	159.61$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.76	170	31.8%54 W · 116 L	-24.9wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8289…c482backed Over	53c	152.3$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.72	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f8…256ebacked Over	52c	115.38$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	95	47.4%45 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	39c	113.47$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.51	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	41c	113$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over	54c	85.42$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.77	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Over	60c	67.52$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.51	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	63c	47.62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	-9.4wins	-0.16per pick	58cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Under	43c	46.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.51	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	57c	46.51$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.51	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1725…7405backed Over	51c	39.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	47c	37.32$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.88	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd09…3264backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-4.6wins	-0.23per pick	53cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	47c	26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.77	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over	60c	23$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 242.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event