NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 246.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00e2934dc961ac5e914c934c5f1b7eda08c4aac6a8d4270007ac554be915084c

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $162,781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $163,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,781 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Over	52c	108,000$55,856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55,855.57	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	48c	101,255$48,848 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52,406.75	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Over	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	197	47.7%94 W · 103 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	47c	5,405$2,540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,864.76	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Under	50c	4,216$2,108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,108	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	51c	3,822$1,934 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,887.56	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	51c	3,322$1,678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,677.96	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Over	52c	2,000$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030	270	51.5%139 W · 131 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	1,506$736 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$770.08	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Under	49c	1,455$713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$742.2	106	42.5%45 W · 61 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Under	49c	1,331$652 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$678.7	232	50.4%117 W · 115 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Over	51c	1,176$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf35f…64c5backed Under	51c	1,175$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$575.43	48	62.5%30 W · 18 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Under	47c	639$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.67	406	48%195 W · 211 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over	54c	500$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	53c	300$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over	52c	296$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.92	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	53c	271$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.63	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Under	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	170	35.9%61 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Under	51c	205.88$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.88	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	49c	172.29$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.87	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over	63c	140.41$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.14	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	60c	121.22$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.22	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under	41c	109.76$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.76	337	30.3%102 W · 235 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Under	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	624	50%312 W · 312 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	373	52%194 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under	18c	100$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Under	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	745	47.2%352 W · 393 L	-13.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Under	33c	90.91$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.91	288	56.9%164 W · 124 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Under	47c	85.11$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.11	250	58.4%146 W · 104 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc936…c08abacked Under	47c	74.79$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.64	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under	49c	66.96$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.96	327	43.4%142 W · 185 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe42d…62febacked Under	50c	66.29$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.29	213	52.1%111 W · 102 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	48c	62.35$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.11	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Under	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a3…ae13backed Under	47c	53.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.19	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-18%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under	49c	30.67$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.69	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Over	50c	30.03$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	222	47.3%105 W · 117 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce42…5cddbacked Over	66c	30$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b9…4ee3backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	55cpaid	-54%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	64c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.51	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	394	49.2%194 W · 200 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 246.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event