NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 247.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x915c8e99432d22a79bb8cf73c7cf74e0611cb48fca91625a1ede27f5f3226213

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,176 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under	51c	10,708$5,481 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,227	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	50c	9,100$4,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,549.92	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	51c	3,345$1,706 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,639.05	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	51c	1,981$1,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,010.31	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under	50c	1,500$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Under	49c	1,393$683 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710.43	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	51c	1,130$572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$557.94	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	778.17$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.33	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	50c	700$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df0…7eb8backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3973…2b2abacked Under	51c	235.29$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.29	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Over	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under	20c	200$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under	50c	197.3$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.65	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47c5…d5dabacked Under	51c	137.25$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.25	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	53cpaid	+41.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	48c	106$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.12	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under	10c	106$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.4	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Under	50c	106$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.4	226	48.2%109 W · 117 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	47c	105.36$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.94	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	175	45.7%80 W · 95 L	-9.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d8e…7fe3backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	45	80%36 W · 9 L	+12.1wins	+0.27per pick	53cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0xfcba…d962backed Under	52c	67.38$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.34	85	43.5%37 W · 48 L	-7.9wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40e9…5729backed Under	51c	40.8$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.82	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Under	50c	27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	49c	23.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Under	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	109	57.8%63 W · 46 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c80…5577backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+68.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	376	65.4%246 W · 130 L	+62.0wins	+0.16per pick	49cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 247.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event