NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb62df7a169cb8a00bdecc51e0b5bf39f441bc5434e1948c3cc2fe9e6e570ccad

Rebuilt 2 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Heat, Pelicans
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $72,287
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $89,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,287 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x55a1…db28backed Heat	55c	15,767$8,619 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,148.66	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans	45c	6,861$3,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,121.46	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans	46c	5,524$2,554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,554.3	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat	51c	4,999$2,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,449.69	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Heat	54c	4,610$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,110.18	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans	46c	3,671$1,695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,695.27	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pelicans	49c	3,535$1,731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,731	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Pelicans	49c	2,874$1,398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,397.6	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Heat	53c	2,500$1,325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,174.99	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans	49c	2,352$1,149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,149.04	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Heat	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960.78	133	55.6%74 W · 59 L	+8.7wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Pelicans	49c	1,910$936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$935.9	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Pelicans	48c	1,504$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$721.62	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans	45c	1,015$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.75	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans	47c	1,000$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Pelicans	45c	959.71$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.87	132	60.6%80 W · 52 L	+14.0wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Heat	56c	734.67$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$326.47	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans	44c	728.52$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.55	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Heat	54c	622.02$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.22	271	61.3%166 W · 105 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Pelicans	57c	524.64$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	462	58.2%269 W · 193 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Pelicans	47c	500$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pelicans	47c	496$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.18	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans	44c	437$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.28	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Heat	53c	418.99$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.92	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Pelicans	47c	382.46$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.75	406	48%195 W · 211 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pelicans	5c	324$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Pelicans	44c	300$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	165	39.4%65 W · 100 L	-11.6wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Pelicans	47c	300$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans	45c	262.93$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.41	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Pelicans	49c	244.9$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Pelicans	47c	213.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Pelicans	49c	205.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	-9.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Heat	53c	183$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.01	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Heat	56c	179.23$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.23	304	54.9%167 W · 137 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Heat	56c	178.61$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.59	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Pelicans	37c	178.26$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.14	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans	48c	175.12$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.08	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Pelicans	48c	168.75$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	168	37.5%63 W · 105 L	-20.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat	52c	165$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.01	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pelicans	44c	164.86$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.06	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Pelicans	47c	152.66$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.74	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Pelicans	47c	148.94$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Heat	53c	141.51$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.51	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pelicans	43c	130.12$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Pelicans	38c	127.94$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.13	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans	45c	113.42$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.41	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7802…d5b4backed Heat	55c	95$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.75	107	58.9%63 W · 44 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat	42c	81.66$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.36	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans	45c	79.59$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.82	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Pelicans	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	126	48.4%61 W · 65 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8396…0de1backed Pelicans	45c	76$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.04	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Pelicans	46c	67.34$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.79	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Pelicans	45c	66.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x891c…ef89backed Heat	69c	66.33$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.33	20	65%13 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Pelicans	48c	60.35$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.27	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Pelicans	33c	60.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Heat	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Pelicans	45c	55.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	745	47.2%352 W · 393 L	-13.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6995…c072backed Pelicans	45c	55.11$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.89	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-4.6wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x04f5…4252backed Heat	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Pelicans	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bbb…1a0dbacked Heat	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf46…a799backed Heat	64c	48.43$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.3	111	51.4%57 W · 54 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Heat	53c	44$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.5	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Heat	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	421	46.1%194 W · 227 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Pelicans	47c	34.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	620	47.3%293 W · 327 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Pelicans	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	380	50.8%193 W · 187 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Pelicans	49c	29.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Pelicans	47c	29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Pelicans	46c	27.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.86	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d02…aa1ebacked Pelicans	47c	27.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.25per pick	41cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf256…a93fbacked Heat	52c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	132	53%70 W · 62 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Heat	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	118	37.3%44 W · 74 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1aa…071abacked Heat	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	90	47.8%43 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Heat	67c	19.55$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.42	248	46.8%116 W · 132 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event