TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,756
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,756 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans42c3,535$1,494 inLost-$1,494.199,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Heat55c3,533$1,943 inWon+$1,589.852,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9acb…d2c7backed Heat58c3,463$2,000 inWon+$1,462.833339.4%13 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans49c3,387$1,665 inLost-$1,665.22,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat58c2,584$1,498 inWon+$1,085.13,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans48c2,424$1,160 inLost-$1,159.634,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat52c2,237$1,154 inWon+$1,083.058,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefe8…fe1abacked Heat56c780$437 inWon+$343.29341.9%39 W · 54 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Pelicans42c400$168 inLost-$16816539.4%65 W · 100 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf93d…f36dbacked Heat57c270$154 inWon+$116.12475%18 W · 6 L+6.3wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+44.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Pelicans42c200$84 inLost-$841,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Heat58c191.51$111 inWon+$80.432,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Heat60c166.67$100 inWon+$66.6761056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd6d…c733backed Heat57c103$59 inWon+$44.299358.1%54 W · 39 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Heat55c99.06$54 inWon+$44.5821858.7%128 W · 90 L+17.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed Heat56c93.95$53 inWon+$41.3412735.4%45 W · 82 L-12.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans44c87.48$38 inLost-$38.492,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Heat60c83.33$50 inWon+$33.331,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Pelicans42c78.28$33 inLost-$32.8839756.7%225 W · 172 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Heat56c71.43$40 inWon+$31.4311853.4%63 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Heat56c62.48$35 inWon+$27.496756.7%38 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d54…81a1backed Heat52c57.69$30 inWon+$27.691040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Pelicans40c50$20 inLost-$202,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat57c50$29 inWon+$21.434,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Pelicans42c50$21 inLost-$2133147.4%157 W · 174 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e2abbacked Pelicans43c47$20 inLost-$20.211650%8 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Heat55c36.36$20 inWon+$16.3624248.3%117 W · 125 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Pelicans42c36$15 inLost-$15.1236651.4%188 W · 178 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f2…625bbacked Heat56c35.88$20 inWon+$15.882740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed Heat58c34.48$20 inWon+$14.4812052.5%63 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Pelicans44c31$14 inLost-$13.6437949.3%187 W · 192 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans45c29.25$13 inLost-$13.162,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d03…d381backed Heat55c25.45$14 inWon+$11.45540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf256…a93fbacked Heat51c25$13 inWon+$12.2513253%70 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf11e…eb4fbacked Heat56c25$14 inWon+$112454.2%13 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+61.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9930…2afcbacked Pelicans42c24$10 inLost-$10.081952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.