NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4d2c5b45cfcb5199e4a57befdd89ed535dd10641a2b7cc93dba8fe314ffb210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 18c | 3,933$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,208.65 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 55c | 3,273$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.15 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 46c | 1,142$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.82 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 6c | 914.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 37c | 850.57$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.98 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Over | 65c | 680.64$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 65c | 505.86$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.81 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 7c | 435.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 4c | 427.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.11 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…04f4backed Under | 30c | 325.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.18 | 226 | 33.2%75 W · 151 L | +14.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 312.4$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…a1e5backed Over | 12c | 280.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 30c | 277.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.24 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 36c | 169.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 43c | 165$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 33c | 142.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 111.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 35c | 101.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 55c | 68.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 60c | 60.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 67c | 42.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 33c | 37.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Under | 38c | 34.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 61c | 31.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 71c | 29.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dc…790bbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Pelicans vs. HeatHeat won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 246.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.