TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,098 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Pelicans53c6,000$3,180 inLost-$3,1801,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Heat49c3,859$1,901 inWon+$1,957.9639349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Heat47c3,294$1,548 inWon+$1,7461,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat48c2,077$997 inWon+$1,080.046,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans48c1,553$753 inLost-$753.244,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Heat48c1,418$680 inWon+$737.111940.3%48 W · 71 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat50c1,245$625 inWon+$619.969,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Pelicans50c1,000$500 inLost-$50051651%263 W · 253 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Heat51c706.78$360 inWon+$346.3223250.4%117 W · 115 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Pelicans52c500$260 inLost-$26091050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans52c500$260 inLost-$2602,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat67c257.61$172 inWon+$85.598,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pelicans20c118.38$24 inLost-$23.743,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Pelicans49c113.71$56 inLost-$55.7212654%68 W · 58 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Pelicans53c94.34$50 inLost-$501,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat49c92.82$46 inWon+$47.293,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Pelicans50c90.58$45 inLost-$44.9693849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa041…04d2backed Pelicans50c80$40 inLost-$401040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Heat49c50$25 inWon+$25.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Pelicans44c45.41$20 inLost-$2024533.9%83 W · 162 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans49c41$20 inLost-$20.093,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat51c35.29$18 inWon+$17.2965950.8%335 W · 324 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b8…3c28backed Pelicans51c29.41$15 inLost-$1516944.4%75 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89a4…5f78backed Pelicans52c20.83$11 inLost-$10.8310053%53 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.