Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea0719df626ce287744affd9c31720bcc9047ec0708c40567166d2bc3b48f3b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 2,106$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.03 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 1,014$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 967.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 913.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 571.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 19c | 543.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 29c | 482.71$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 440.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 10c | 412.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…c940backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…fad1backed Yes | 9c | 349.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 16c | 333.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 36c | 325.23$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.29 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 301.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 14c | 284.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 5c | 236.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 217.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 10c | 198.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 36c | 193.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 37c | 185.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…fc45backed Yes | 8c | 172.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 165.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 158.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 151.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 17c | 143.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 26c | 142.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 134.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 74c | 127.68$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 120.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…3c72backed Yes | 29c | 117.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 23c | 106.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 73c | 105.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 28c | 97.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 17c | 94.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 23c | 84.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 78.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x70cd…4694backed No | 70c | 77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 19c | 75.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 67.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 66.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 65.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 32c | 65.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 34c | 63.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 37c | 62.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 62.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 57.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 69c | 56.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 53.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 78c | 49.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 37c | 40.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked No | 61c | 39.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 77c | 33.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 75c | 30.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 29.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…33d0backed Yes | 39c | 27.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -82%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…45c4backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 61c | 18.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…1215backed No | 73c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…705dbacked No | 71c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 76c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.