TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,233

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed No6c2,877$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5557614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No4c2,000$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.21,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No4c1,668$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9196620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes49c1,248$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.8519338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No5c1,208$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7933620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c766.12$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.1612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No18c685.72$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.254,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No7c569.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3426265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes61c565.42$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.733339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No36c532.94$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9562555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25dd…4f23backed No4c433.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-28.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No6c412.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.791,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No9c401.58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.067,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No70c263.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9816335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes24c249.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.9934918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes29c233.71$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.9323035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes59c230.86$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2786420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No75c195.95$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1953437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6de…6f5ebacked No12c195.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4711627.6%32 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-0.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c190.23$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.34,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No29c184.77$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3546626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes61c181.64$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.622951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c171.67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.092,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c171.55$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.228,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd5…4390backed Yes76c166.11$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.726660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a66…1968backed Yes26c166.09$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.12540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+37.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes32c161.88$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8849038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes33c154.86$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.622,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes43c137.94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.1545127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed No11c136.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes25c133$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7556118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6641…ceb2backed No10c132.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.782123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.92,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c127.73$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.322,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes20c126.66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.811,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c119.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes26c115.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.541,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes42c113.37$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.137129.6%21 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+82.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c111$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.819,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes35c109.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3811637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes26c106.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.077728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes20c104.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.131,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes26c100.17$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.342334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes66c97.72$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3633349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes28c97.45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1113424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c97.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.61,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabcc…32f6backed Yes49c96.76$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.711060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaca…51f6backed Yes21c94.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.383023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c83.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.563,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No78c82.31$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9931868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes76c77.17$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.437653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked No22c72.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.820928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes71c68.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7795852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes49c67.71$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.331,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4db0…bcd3backed No41c67.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.851931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-50.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes74c66.13$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.451154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes20c64.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5722028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes24c63.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5120942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes25c62.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0156131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes22c60.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.022,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.434748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c59.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes52c55.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2757659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0caa…48d4backed Yes24c53.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes43c53.46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x087b…713ebacked Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…2a4dbacked No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No78c48.88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.935168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes54c48.81$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5325742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No54c47.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5634970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed Yes63c47.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.628151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x113d…a5e6backed Yes34c43.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.372420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ca…b823backed No35c43.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes51c42.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9829640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes72c40.39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2123668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.478663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes50c39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.58623.3%20 W · 66 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…8ca0backed Yes69c38.76$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.027969.6%55 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes26c38.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b8c…b2eebacked No51c36.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.541656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No80c36.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9441460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7f…9818backed Yes31c36.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.85475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+141.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed No78c35.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2660236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a1…2d09backed No65c34.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No63c34.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5610371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes48c34.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.971,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c24…81e9backed Yes63c33.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.481770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c33.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe471…6604backed Yes64c32.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7312856.3%72 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes65c32.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.129770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No77c31.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4311977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes39c31.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0614829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c9…5e91backed Yes39c30.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes66c30.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4317643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c4…e793backed Yes66c29.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.954223.8%10 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No74c29.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6254966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc391…cefbbacked Yes77c28.25$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.52742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes69c28.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7113042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.