NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea589344122d191ad4a2f3ef1a168609b97eaf3a51a9d0102062584cf8409378
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Oilers, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Oilers | 37c | 484$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.92 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Oilers | 35c | 477.37$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.67 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Ducks | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oilers | 74c | 382.48$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Oilers | 42c | 144.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Ducks | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Ducks | 63c | 112.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…33fabacked Ducks | 56c | 104.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc141…2c71backed Oilers | 36c | 99.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed Ducks | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Ducks | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Oilers | 45c | 69.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Oilers | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Oilers | 33c | 59.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Oilers | 36c | 56.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Ducks | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Ducks | 66c | 53.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Ducks | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 208 | 55.8%116 W · 92 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Ducks | 53c | 45.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Ducks | 66c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Oilers | 35c | 40.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Oilers | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Ducks | 65c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Ducks | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Ducks | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Ducks | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Ducks | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Ducks | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Ducks | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…af8abacked Ducks | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +93%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…080dbacked Oilers | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f6…5b6cbacked Ducks | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Ducks | 59c | 23.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Ducks | 58c | 22.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Ducks | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab28…0ed3backed Ducks | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b3…6d48backed Ducks | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…6321backed Ducks | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. OilersOilers won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.