NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02598296559df66c76cf90bc7c65da4a7c50607da58d9e08579fc6095b470b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46e6…ed5ebacked Over | 46c | 3,300$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 54c | 3,222$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.88 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 80c | 1,087$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.46 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Under | 24c | 802.42$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 13c | 730$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2b81backed Under | 33c | 506.05$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 18c | 428.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 80c | 379.31$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 55c | 248.58$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Under | 41c | 243.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 71c | 169$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 70c | 151.89$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 36c | 139.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 62c | 132.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 44c | 119$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Over | 46c | 116.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 36c | 81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 58c | 76.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 59c | 67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5c…d123backed Under | 73c | 62.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 51.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 59c | 50.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 64c | 41.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 208 | 55.8%116 W · 92 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…bfefbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 59c | 39.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 44c | 35.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 42c | 32.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 44c | 29.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 53c | 18.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5this page
- Ducks vs. OilersOilers won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.