Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb82fda0a3511e604f25fbd31b74508f14e382522124ef3f8add095516bd2360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 16c | 923$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 21c | 836.2$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.61 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 24c | 653.05$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.61 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 25c | 600.13$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.76 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 11c | 449.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 359.85$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 19c | 315.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 281.55$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…9dedbacked No | 73c | 245.06$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 10c | 211.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 74c | 210$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 203.34$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 193.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 169.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 159.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 158$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 15c | 149.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 12c | 142.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 9c | 124.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed No | 79c | 116$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 9c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 110.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 103.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 15c | 86.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 22c | 68.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 74c | 65.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 24c | 62.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 76c | 62.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked No | 73c | 59.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…c599backed Yes | 28c | 56.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 80c | 56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…536dbacked No | 79c | 37.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 16.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377a…4526backed No | 80c | 14.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…1995backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.