Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdf3ba62ea282f7f58af46099153c81590d95e5535f57f8424a3cec7c0b89e8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 26c | 2,646$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.93 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 6c | 2,042$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 19c | 1,624$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.63 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,553$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 1c | 1,311$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 23c | 1,164$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.92 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,129$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.26 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…f533backed No | 65c | 1,111$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 34c | 1,008$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.22 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 966.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 7c | 886.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 875.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 16c | 823.75$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 811.07$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 78c | 764.44$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 64c | 756.83$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.04 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 15c | 737.61$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 31c | 725.54$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.64 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 40c | 699.84$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.26 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 656.22$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 40c | 633.06$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 630.73$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 15c | 616.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…416cbacked Yes | 2c | 573.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked No | 70c | 571.71$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.12 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 18c | 569.32$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 558$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 7c | 464.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 80c | 440.87$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 429.45$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.62 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 377.26$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.65 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 361.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 7c | 359$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 10c | 325.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 49c | 305.38$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 19c | 301.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 293.55$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 289.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 37c | 288.03$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 282.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 44c | 281.94$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 270$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 38c | 265.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 263.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 37c | 262.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 36c | 251.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 17c | 240.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 233.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 231.06$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 214.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 185$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…d101backed Yes | 27c | 176.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 35c | 149.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 147.91$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 142.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 37c | 137.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…e3fcbacked Yes | 45c | 135.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 32c | 134.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 64c | 133.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…c599backed Yes | 56c | 116.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 114.67$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 113.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 63c | 110.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 33c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 64c | 103.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 101.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 40c | 92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 89.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…3c8fbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 49c | 76.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 76.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 67c | 74.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 41c | 72.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 34c | 66.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 48c | 64.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 39c | 56.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 55.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 35c | 53.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 44c | 52.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.