Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed0cafe030b9b4036f41aecaf3b57e8feb221de56d66325142e1a26592895a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 1c | 2,422$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 1,720$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 38c | 1,698$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.95 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,576$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.25 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 66c | 1,392$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.55 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 1,382$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 48c | 1,310$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.46 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 59c | 1,277$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.79 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 13c | 1,014$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.28 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 1,003$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 45c | 997.98$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 985.14$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 978.26$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 48c | 889.67$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.4 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 35c | 829.87$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.97 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 54c | 703.72$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.35 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 696.24$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 64c | 633.76$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.4 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7d…1968backed No | 3c | 627.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 24c | 624.76$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.31 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 18c | 581.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.97 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 55c | 514.5$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.28 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 24c | 430.87$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 34c | 428.27$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.56 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 422.62$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 50c | 416.13$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.37 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 15c | 403.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 43c | 377.29$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.05 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 23c | 369.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 14c | 366.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 32c | 349.42$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.09 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 347.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 29c | 314.65$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.83 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 313.14$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 44c | 297.08$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.14 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 294$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 15c | 282.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 278.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 270$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 29c | 259.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.38 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 258.55$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 15c | 249.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…0f28backed No | 64c | 246.05$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 49c | 242.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 226.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…f154backed No | 38c | 215.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 58c | 214.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 72c | 209.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 70c | 194.43$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…59bbbacked No | 68c | 193.81$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 14c | 189.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 35c | 188.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 74c | 188.03$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 53c | 187$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 58c | 173.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 53c | 166.53$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 44c | 161.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 22c | 155.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 140.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 64c | 138$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 41c | 137.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 136.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 131.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 43c | 128.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 21c | 120.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 35c | 119.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 117.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 117.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 46c | 108.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 59c | 107.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 41c | 100.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…a6cdbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 97.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 50c | 92.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…2794backed Yes | 44c | 89.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 20c | 87.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 79.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 43c | 77.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 76.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…416cbacked Yes | 44c | 75.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 31c | 73.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 45c | 73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…3901backed Yes | 42c | 59.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6104…f040backed Yes | 69c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 59c | 57.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…c599backed Yes | 43c | 57.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 53c | 57.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 40c | 57.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.