Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Jakub Mensik vs Ugo Blanchet
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb87b61a1e3da76d0b211b51d6e894e503336928d5770315e78fdf672f1e425c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blanchetof Mensik, Blanchet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1126…6e7abacked Blanchet | 45c | 6,083$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,322.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Blanchet | 20c | 2,500$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,997.41 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Mensik | 76c | 1,859$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.09 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…1742backed Blanchet | 35c | 1,559$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Mensik | 74c | 1,532$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.91 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Mensik | 63c | 1,467$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Mensik | 54c | 1,288$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Mensik | 54c | 1,073$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.87 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Mensik | 59c | 850$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.5 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Blanchet | 16c | 818.85$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.85 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Blanchet | 18c | 800$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Blanchet | 18c | 794.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.44 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Mensik | 60c | 710$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Blanchet | 46c | 654.72$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Blanchet | 49c | 581$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.92 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Blanchet | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Blanchet | 24c | 555.56$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.56 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Blanchet | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Mensik | 73c | 512.48$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.42 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Blanchet | 17c | 504$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.32 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Blanchet | 48c | 500$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.67 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Mensik | 63c | 479.63$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Mensik | 64c | 475.71$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.73 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Mensik | 53c | 467.59$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Blanchet | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Mensik | 35c | 424.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Blanchet | 30c | 403.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.51 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Mensik | 53c | 378.53$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.62 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Blanchet | 23c | 360.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.07 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Mensik | 68c | 359.32$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.01 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Blanchet | 28c | 357.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.56 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Mensik | 57c | 317.44$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.65 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Blanchet | 17c | 282.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.65 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Blanchet | 13c | 260$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.31 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Blanchet | 14c | 250$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Blanchet | 17c | 217$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.11 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Blanchet | 21c | 209.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.29 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Blanchet | 73c | 189$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Blanchet | 71c | 189$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Mensik | 37c | 160.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Mensik | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Mensik | 57c | 120.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Blanchet | 30c | 118.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Mensik | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…26ebbacked Blanchet | 38c | 112$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 57cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Blanchet | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Blanchet | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Mensik | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Mensik | 58c | 96.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0de…443bbacked Blanchet | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Mensik | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Mensik | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Mensik | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Mensik | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Blanchet | 17c | 64.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Mensik | 78c | 54.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Mensik | 53c | 42.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Blanchet | 56c | 35.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mensik | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f88…fc5fbacked Mensik | 64c | 23.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Blanchet | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7b…b568backed Mensik | 66c | 18.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.