CS2 · resolved market
FISSURE Playground 2: Aurora vs. Astralis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb939366b121bb398e4c28defffc239c1d2d839ecffb227af916546aa700f4e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed Aurora | 63c | 11,522$7,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,266.52 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Astralis | 37c | 6,283$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.54 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Aurora | 59c | 5,555$3,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.55 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Astralis | 41c | 5,369$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.29 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Astralis | 36c | 3,308$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.97 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Astralis | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Astralis | 59c | 2,286$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Aurora | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.5 | 196 | 60.7%119 W · 77 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Aurora | 63c | 1,626$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.76 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 56c | 1,573$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.03 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Astralis | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Astralis | 38c | 1,480$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.51 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Aurora | 55c | 1,455$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.88 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Aurora | 64c | 1,392$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.19 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Aurora | 48c | 1,200$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Aurora | 64c | 1,041$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.62 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Astralis | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked Astralis | 33c | 903.96$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.94 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Astralis | 46c | 898$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Aurora | 40c | 861.27$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.09 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 41c | 749.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora | 62c | 710.16$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.86 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Astralis | 50c | 628.5$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.54 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -18.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Astralis | 37c | 609.74$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.92 | 217 | 37.3%81 W · 136 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Astralis | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.87 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Astralis | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Astralis | 38c | 553.17$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.47 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked Aurora | 41c | 516.26$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.7 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Astralis | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…f19bbacked Aurora | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Aurora | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Aurora | 63c | 466.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.79 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Aurora | 56c | 446.01$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.01 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Aurora | 50c | 437.51$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.77 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed Aurora | 48c | 413.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.39 | 300 | 39.7%119 W · 181 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Astralis | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Aurora | 63c | 371.44$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.43 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Astralis | 14c | 370$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…da92backed Astralis | 36c | 278$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Aurora | 62c | 274.41$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 687 | 53.9%370 W · 317 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Astralis | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Astralis | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…3f0abacked Aurora | 63c | 222.94$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked Astralis | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…53c3backed Aurora | 62c | 205$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…55c3backed Astralis | 45c | 203.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Aurora | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Aurora | 62c | 199$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Aurora | 48c | 173.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Aurora | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Astralis | 32c | 138.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Astralis | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 43.1%115 W · 152 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…d8dabacked Aurora | 63c | 125.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Astralis | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Aurora | 57c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Aurora | 63c | 101.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Aurora | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 172 | 36.6%63 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…a746backed Aurora | 41c | 74.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Astralis | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 317 | 31.9%101 W · 216 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Aurora | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -9.0wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…d442backed Aurora | 63c | 64.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Aurora | 40c | 62.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Aurora | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Aurora | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 426 | 38%162 W · 264 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Astralis | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Aurora | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…f301backed Aurora | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 201 | 57.7%116 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Aurora | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed Astralis | 37c | 37.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Astralis | 51c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Aurora | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Aurora | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Aurora | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 283 | 46.6%132 W · 151 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Astralis | 39c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…a530backed Aurora | 63c | 16.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Aurora | 74c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 384 | 52.3%201 W · 183 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.