Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb94c26d76506b05e80907203f8e264f86f40a7afee67c4b444ed0c86ce915d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 49c | 10,037$4,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,908.34 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Over | 51c | 6,943$3,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,401.9 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Under | 51c | 1,538$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.58 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Over | 49c | 1,062$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.5 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Over | 50c | 998.45$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.23 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 51c | 745.49$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.95 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 42c | 625.26$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.86 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked Over | 52c | 560.31$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.95 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Over | 51c | 474.35$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.43 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 62c | 448.9$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.22 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52c5…5878backed Over | 51c | 388.24$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Under | 50c | 388.06$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.03 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…7111backed Over | 51c | 344.49$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.8 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Over | 51c | 247.41$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.23 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 52c | 199.78$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.87 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…dfadbacked Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Over | 49c | 164.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.91 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…e997backed Over | 52c | 162.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Over | 48c | 133.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…0f32backed Over | 52c | 102.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 89 | 18%16 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 51c | 93.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Over | 51c | 80.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…d46dbacked Over | 51c | 76.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Under | 46c | 61.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…0c34backed Over | 52c | 37.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…abfebacked Under | 49c | 31.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb50a…ccddbacked Over | 51c | 30.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe5…ed22backed Under | 50c | 28.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…7a98backed Under | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…eabbbacked Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Over | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0ae9backed Under | 50c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0903…d446backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…55c2backed Over | 64c | 16.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)BetBoom Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.