Dota2 · resolved market
Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeba85dc1d6ebb0c6da4d0b46cb5f27de1dc098051b93bdd5785ba74f0278a942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Yes | 36c | 1,176$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.37 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed No | 64c | 1,007$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.58 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3452…1ba0backed Yes | 35c | 956.33$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.28 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 54c | 750$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.5 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…4537backed Yes | 46c | 659.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.82 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 46c | 410.12$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.66 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 384.47$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 54c | 317.36$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.99 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Yes | 38c | 300$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed No | 80c | 285.02$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 75c | 277$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 57c | 257.31$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.37 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 35c | 253.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 54c | 220.12$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Yes | 40c | 219.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 306 | 43.5%133 W · 173 L | -22.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6281…e326backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 62c | 185$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 166.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Yes | 36c | 152.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked No | 65c | 137.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 129$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed No | 66c | 97.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 96.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed Yes | 36c | 86.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed No | 55c | 77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked No | 49c | 76.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 128 | 60.9%78 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…b43bbacked Yes | 33c | 69.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…2b19backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 66c | 45.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…516bbacked No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e5…91d6backed Yes | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked No | 64c | 38.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…ee29backed Yes | 36c | 38.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 174 | 51.7%90 W · 84 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed No | 63c | 35.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed No | 63c | 33.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 70c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…3342backed Yes | 63c | 27.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 58c | 25.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 22.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 64c | 16.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked No | 65c | 15.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?this page
- Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming: Draw (1-1)?No won
- Vici Gaming to win 2-0?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.