Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee201fe1feab73e263227e98308728c29463febe4c027e0b4db03e95f3dfbbed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 24c | 419.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.1 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 15c | 291.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 221.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 60c | 206$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 186.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 180$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 162.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 157.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 153$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 152.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 75c | 138$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 8c | 135.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 133.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 113$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 109.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 35c | 93.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 64c | 81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 78.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 75.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 21c | 73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 67c | 71.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 36c | 70.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 42c | 66.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 20c | 62.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 59.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 44c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…28d5backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 53.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 45.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 71c | 37.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 36.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 79c | 34.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 38c | 30.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 29.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 27.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1784…7bafbacked Yes | 56c | 26.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 76c | 25.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 16.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.