Golf · resolved market

Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee2c4de36f83bce57464e0a6e93f6f271f9febfebc5aa2d55392cce4500f2a3e

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,527
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,518

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,527 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6239…c24fbacked No	37c	340.61$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.25	268	39.9%107 W · 161 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No	63c	278.86$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.18	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	72c	232.64$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.49	225	46.7%105 W · 120 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Yes	37c	192.44$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.2	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	37c	140$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked No	63c	136.89$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.65	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+3.9wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x91ba…8e5cbacked No	65c	128.28$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.97	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	37c	125.09$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.28	74	6.8%5 W · 69 L	-6.7wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes	36c	114.38$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.18	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	36cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x292a…66c1backed Yes	38c	60$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	38c	47.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.45	108	50%54 W · 54 L	+6.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	60c	43.39$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.21	254	49.2%125 W · 129 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e17…c868backed No	64c	30.58$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.01	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No	64c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event