Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeec8672b3ff0e6b36e9321ec4d99aafd2d6be6578d19cc12ba0da62f69615b47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,201$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.32 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,170$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.32 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 522.03$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 504.7$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 418.03$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 52c | 347.83$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.65 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 37c | 265.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 27c | 261.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 235.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 225.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 28c | 223.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…7edabacked No | 76c | 207.64$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 203.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 63c | 202.19$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.42 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 52c | 201.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 196$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 185.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 165$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 38c | 163$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 123.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 122.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 115.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 49c | 100.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 86.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 85.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 80.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 34c | 79.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 78.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 78.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 39c | 73.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 47c | 68.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 49c | 61.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 54.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 52.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 60c | 52.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 50.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 50.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 47.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 50c | 45.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 42.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 54c | 39.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 37.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 51c | 36.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 48c | 36.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 56c | 35.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 34.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 33.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 61c | 31.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 57c | 30.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 50c | 30.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 28.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 28.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 26.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed Yes | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 25.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 54c | 25.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 24.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 61c | 19.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 64c | 18.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 56c | 18.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 17.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 71c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 77°F or below on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.